Ukraine-Russia war latest: Warning of 'grave consequences' after dam blast as Russians 'trying to steal boats' from fleeing Ukrainians (2023)

Vladimir Putin has called the destruction of the Kakhovka dam an "environmental andhumanitarian catastrophe", according to the Kremlin.

The Russian president made the statement during a call with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, today.

Mr Erdogan also spoke to Volodymyr Zelenskyy on a separate phone call, telling him that an international commission could be set up to investigate the dam collapse.

During the conversation, the Ukrainian president branded the incident a "Russian act of terrorism" and said he "handed over a list of Ukraine's urgent needs to eliminate the disaster".

Significantly more people are affected by flooding on the Russian-controlled side than in Ukrainian-held territory, according toour security and defence analyst Michael Clarke.

More than 25,000 on the Russian side will have to be evacuated, compared to around 15,000 on the Ukrainian side.

Discussing the political fallout, Clarke said that there had been "lots of condemnation", describing it as "clearly a war crime".

He added: "Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, who is normally very cautions about these things, said yesterday that it was of course the Russians, as did Charles Michel of the European Council and the British foreign secretary, James Cleverly.

"There is some military logic in it from the Russian point of view, but the humanitarian problem it creates makes that completely disproportionate."

Available evidence, reasoning and rhetoric suggests Russia "deliberately damaged" the dam, according to military experts.

The Institute for the Study of War said it cannot definitively conclude who or what caused the breach, but several Russian explanations were "implausible" and Moscow had more to gain.

Russian sources have "expressed intense and explicit concern" over Ukraine crossing the Dnipro river, and flooding it would widen the waterway, making this more difficult, the US-based thinktank said.

Ukrainian positions near the shoreline were washed away and soldiers were forced to evacuate while under Russian artillery fire, according to ISW assessments of footage captured yesterday.

Some Russian formations on the east bank may have been caught off guard by the flooding, but "Ukraine has no material interest in blowing the dam", said the ISW.

It called claims made by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov - that Ukraine sabotaged the dam because its army was not achieving their counteroffensive goals - "implausible".

"Ukrainian forces have not yet conducted large-scale offensive operations," the ISW said, echoing a senior Ukrainian official today.

Russia's defence minister said Ukrainian forces were relocating from Kherson to support "failing" offensive actions elsewhere and blew the dam to reinforce Kherson defences, but the ISW said this too was "implausible" because Russian forces in Kherson "pose no meaningful threat".

Nonetheless, no "clear evidence" has yet become available, and the possibility remains that pre-existing structural damage caused the breakage, notwithstanding reports of explosions, according to the thinktank.

Move the slider across the image below to see the difference in the flow of water after the dam was breached.

Three clear breaches in the dam wall can be seen in the second image, with the water flowing out changing from a comparative trickle to a torrent.

The Soviet era Kakhovka Reservoir was built in 1956 and, at its fullest, can hold more than 18 square kilometres of water.

A Putin ally has said the UK, US and their NATO allies must "bear responsibility" for the destruction of the Kakhovka dam.

Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Russian Security Council, said the countries were "coordinating Ukraine'sactivities" and therefore "gave consent to the bombing".

Despite accusing Ukraine of shelling the dam, Russian officials have not provided any evidence, and experts say artillery shells could not breach a dam of this magnitude.

Ukraine has accused Russia of blowing up the 100ft structure, also without definitive evidence, but experts believe Russia has much more to gain from the floods - with defence analyst Michael Clarke going as far as to say he is "absolutely certain" Russia was behind the breach.

The Institute for the Study of War pointed to the cover it could provide any retreating Russian forces in the Kherson region and the impediment flooding would create for the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

An international commission could be formed to investigate the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, the president of Turkey has proposed.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a phone call with Volodymyr Zelenskyy that a negotiation method similar to those used for the Black Sea grain deals could be pursued.

For context: Turkey and the UN brokered an agreement to provide a safe corridor for the export of grain from Ukraine via the Black Sea to alleviate a global food crisis.

Ukraine has not launched its counteroffensive, a senior official has said, contradicting claims made by ex-Russian president Dmitry Medvedev this morning.

Earlier today, we reported how Vladimir Putin's long-term ally said Ukraine has "already started something", referring to the long-anticipated counterattack.

But the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, Oleksiy Danilov, has dismissed the remarks as "not true".

He said: "When we start the counteroffensive, everyone will know about it, they will see it."

Russian officials have mistaken localised Ukrainian advances - such as in Bakhmut - for the beginning of the operation, he added.

Turning to the destruction of the Kakhovka dam yesterday, Mr Danilov said: "They [Russia] believed that we would advance in that direction. Their actions will not result in the consequences that they would have liked them to lead to."

Russia denies blowing the dam, blaming Ukraine instead, without providing evidence.

Sky News cannot independently verify these battlefield reports.

Our experts have beenanswering your questionson the war.

Sky News reader Alex G asks what the chances are that Iran will start providing Russia with tanks and armoured vehicles - given that it's already providing drones and, as uncovered by Sky News this week, ammunition.

Our Middle East correspondent Alistair Bunkall has this answer...

Iran has transferred hundreds, if not thousands, of Shahid drones to Russia. They filled a critical gap in Moscow's capabilities and were used to effect, targeting Ukrainian infrastructure over the winter.

The problem for the West is that there is little they can really do to stop the pipeline of weapons from Iran to Russia, or vice versa (Iran is expecting to receive the advanced Russian Su-35 fighter jets as part of a new deal between the two).

Just look at a map - the Caspian Sea provides an easy and direct route for ships to travel between the two countries, and NATO militaries can't access it. Bordering countries either don't have the capability or will to intervene, so the route remains relatively risk-free.

Recent tracking data has shown an increasing number of ships going dark - turning off their location transponders - making them hard to follow and therefore obfuscating what's going on, though satellite imagery has shed some light. Ships appear to be leaving the Iranian ports of Amirabad and Anzali and then travelling north to the Volga River where Russia has a large port at Astrakhan.

It's believed drones and arms have also been transferred to Russia via air on occasion too.

We are seeing an overall deepening of military ties between the two countries, which is mutually beneficial for two states heavily sanctioned and shunned by the international community.

Whether heavier weaponry, like tanks, are sent to Russia is another matter but it wouldn't surprise me if Iran does try to help its ally as Moscow grows ever desperate to win the conflict it started. Having said that, even Iran's most advanced tank, the Karrar built in 2018, is considered inferior to Western variants.

Germany is preparing to host the biggest air deployment exercise in NATO's history in a show of force to potential adversaries such as Russia, officials said.

The Air Defender 23 exercise starting next week will see 10,000 participants and 250 aircraft from 25 nations respond to a simulated attack on a NATO member country.

The US alone is sending 2,000 US Air National Guard personnel and about 100 aircraft to take part in the training manoeuvres between 12 June and 23 June.

Amy Gutmann, the US ambassador to Germany, said: "I would be pretty surprised if any world leader was not taking note of what this shows in terms of the spirit of this alliance, which means the strength of this alliance."

"And that includes Mr Putin," she added.

While the drill has been planned for several years, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has jolted NATO into preparing in earnest for the possibility of an attack on its territory.

Sweden, which is hoping to join the alliance, and Japan are also taking part in the exercise.

The environmental destruction wrought by the water from the dam is the worst Ukraine has experienced since the fall of the USSR.

Our security and defence analyst Michael Clarke described it as "the biggest environmental disaster to hit Ukraine since Chernobyl".

"The residential areas near the dam have been completely inundated with water on both the Ukrainian and Russian sides," he added.

As to who is to blame for the incident, he says that despite Ukraine and Russia blaming each other, privately everyone at the UN thinks they know what happened.

"Officially, they say they are waiting for evidence, but it is pretty clear that the UN will gather that evidence and there will be an awful lot of recriminations because of this."

Yesterday, Clarke explained that he was "absolutely certain" Russia was responsible, saying "no artillery shells in the world could do that to a dam".